In recent years, breakthroughs in shale gas exploration and development technologies have led to an explosive growth in shale gas production in the United States, propelling it to surpass Russia for four consecutive years as the world's largest gas-producing country.
The growth in U.S. shale gas production has led to a relaxed supply and demand situation, making LNG exports a reality.
According to the "China LNG Industry '13th Five-Year Plan' Market Outlook and Development Planning Analysis Report" released by the Forward Industry Research Institute: From 2006 to 2012, the total natural gas production in the United States rapidly increased from 523.2 billion cubic meters to 681.4 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 4.5%. During the same period, the proportion of shale gas in total natural gas production rose from 2% to 37%. On the other hand, the growth in natural gas consumption in the United States was relatively slow. From 2006 to 2012, consumption increased from 614.4 billion cubic meters to 722.7 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%. The growth in domestic production led to a relaxed supply and demand situation, and the net import of natural gas in the United States declined year by year. From 2006 to 2012, the net import of natural gas in the United States decreased from 95.5 billion cubic meters to 42.8 billion cubic meters. It is expected that the United States will become a net exporter of LNG by 2016.
Around 2017, the United States is expected to export over 30 million tons of LNG to Asia
The export of natural gas compressors from the United States requires dual approval from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The DOE primarily reviews and approves export license applications submitted by exporters, while the FERC is responsible for approving permits for the construction or modification of LNG projects. In 2012, the Sabine Pass project, with an export capacity of 16 million tons per year, received approval from both the DOE and the FERC. As of May 2014, seven projects had been approved by the DOE for LNG exports to non-Free Trade Agreement (non-FTA) countries, with a total annual export capacity of 71.42 million tons, though they still awaited FERC approval. Additionally, 23 other projects had submitted applications to the DOE, with a combined planned capacity of 217.2 million tons per year.
The United States has signed multiple LNG export agreements. In 2012, the U.S. signed LNG export agreements with the United Kingdom, Spain, India, and South Korea, totaling an annual export volume of 16 million tons. In 2013, the U.S. signed 10 LNG export agreements with companies from countries such as Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and India. By the end of 2013, the total volume of LNG export agreements signed by the U.S. had reached 55.05 million tons per year, primarily destined for Asian and European markets. According to statistics, it is estimated that around 2017, the U.S. will directly sell at least 26 million tons of LNG annually to the Asian market. Additionally, it is possible that companies like BP and BG in the UK may re-export some LNG to Asia. Therefore, it is projected that around 2017, the volume of LNG exported from the U.S. to Asia is expected to exceed 30 million tons.
Asian high premium or easing
From a pricing perspective, there are significant regional disparities in global LNG prices. Among them, Asia is one of the regions with the highest LNG prices globally, far exceeding those in North America and even Europe. As of July 2014, LNG prices in Asia were generally between $16 and $18 per million BTU, while in North America, prices were below $4, and in Europe, they hovered around $10.
With the growing demand market, Asian consumers such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India are actively seeking imported resources. Driven by Asia's substantial demand and higher premiums, LNG suppliers have now shifted their primary focus to the Asian market. For example, among the four natural gas export projects approved by the U.S. Department of Energy for countries without free trade agreements, two are specifically aimed at exporting to Japan.The export of U.S. LNG is expected to reduce Japan's LNG import prices and partially replace other import sources in Asia. While most LNG pricing in Asia is oil-linked, U.S. natural gas pricing is market-driven, characterized by competition among gas suppliers. With the entry of U.S. LNG into the Asian market, importers will have more pricing options, which could challenge the existing oil-linked pricing mechanism. As U.S. LNG exports increase and Australia's export potential expands, the growing supply is likely to reduce the premium that Asia currently holds over other markets.